Abstract: As climate change and fossil fuel dependency challenge global development, the blue economy offers a promising route to sustainability. This study examines how agriculture, forestry, and fishing value added (AF), aquaculture production (AP), and fishery production (FP) affect sustainable economic development (GS) in African oil-dependent countries from 1980 to 2023. Using the Panel Nonlinear ARDL model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the analysis captures asymmetric effects. Positive shocks in AF, AP, and FP promote GS through improved food security, employment, and economic diversification. Surprisingly, negative shocks also show positive long-run effects, suggesting adaptive policy responses and institutional reforms play a mediating role. By including institutional quality—measured by control of corruption—the study confirms that good governance strengthens the impact of blue economy sectors on sustainability. Findings underscore the need for targeted investments and strong institutions to transform blue economy potential into long-term development outcomes.

Keywords: blue economy; sustainable economic development; oil-dependent economies; Fisheries

JEL codes: C23; Q02; Q15

DOI: ...