A. Development of an integrated system of macroeconomic models
Substantiation of new versions of the annual macromodel that will deepen the functional characteristics of the Romanian economy as an entity of European Union.
The adjustment of the input-output block for explorative simulations.
The elaboration of a quarterly model with monthly deduction for the main indicators of interest.
B B. The increased utilization of modern econometrics and other quantitative techniques (Monte Carlo experiments, neural networks, genetic algorithms, bayesian statistics, etc) in the applications
By this complex researches on pursue consistent specification of the behavioral equations, robust econometric estimations, embedding of uncertainty and potential shocks in the models and more relevant macroeconomic analyses and predictions.
Founded in 1990 by Prof. Emilian Dobrescu
Coordinator: Prof. Emilian Dobrescu
Scientific Secretary: Bianca Pauna, Corina Saman
Participants: researchers from the National Institute for Economic Research (NIER) component institutes, specialists from the Institute for Mathematical Statistics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, Ministry of Development and Forecasting.
Object of activity:
|presentation of papers regarding the recent developments in the macroeconomic theory and modelling, and the modern econometric applications;
|informational support for the macro-model of the Romanian economy; for this purpose it has been drawn up the national economy's data base, comprising information regarding the demographic dynamics and the labour market, the GDP and its components, the foreign trade and the budgetary, monetary and price indicators;
|estimation of the Romanian economy's evolution; using the "Dobrescu Macro-model" in accordance with the latest statistical information available; monthly are drawn up predictions based on the possible options of the macroeconomic policies; the predictions concern the possible evolutions of the GDP, domestic aggregate demand, investments, foreign trade, unemployment and prices;
|organization of lectures for the Ph.D. students, in the fields of national accounting, econometrics, macroeconomic modelling.
Work programme: weekly reunions during the February - June and October - December intervals;