Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dobrescu, Emilian
Author-Workplace-Name: Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, National Institute of Economic Research. Romanian Academy.
Author-Email: emiliand@clicknet.ro
Title: Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output
Abstract: This paper examines the modelling complications that appear when some
macroeconomic behavioral relationships interact with structural variables, even under
a given A matrix. The main problem is related to the situation when: a) the final
consumption, gross fixed capital formation, inventory changes, export, import (all of
them at market prices), and gross value added (at production prices) are estimated as
macro-indicators; and b) the output (at production prices) is determined at a
disaggregated level. The so-called demand-side or supply-side approaches are
possible; here, the supply-side approach is in focus.
With such a goal, the regression and linear weighted average (in the Fisher version)
techniques are discussed as the main tools for estimating sectoral weights of the final
output. For the linear weighted average method, the paper sketches – as a discussion
proposal – a methodology for the optimal selection of the length (number of terms) of
the moving average. As a primary database, the Romanian input-output tables for
1989–2009, aggregated into 10 sectors, were used
Classification-JEL: C32, C36, C43, C67
Keywords: final output, sectoral structure, regression, moving average
Journal: Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting
Pages: 59-89
Volume:
Issue: 3
Year: 2013
Month: October
X-File-Ref: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_13/rjef3_2013p59-89.txt
File-URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_13/rjef3_2013p59-89.pdf
Handle: Repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:3:p:59-89