Abstract: The heterogeneous conclusions on the impact of R&D investment on performance are direct evidence of the black box of R&D investment output. Continuing to study the direct impact of R&D investment on performance makes it difficult to break this black box. According to the logic that the output of R&D investment first results in patents and only through patent operation can generate revenue, it is necessary to examine the impact of patent operation levels on performance, indirectly reflecting the impact of dormant patents and proprietary technology on performance. Second, to reduce the failure rate of R&D, it is crucial to emphasize the role of high total factor productivity in the efficiency of R&D resource allocation rather than solely focusing on how R&D investment promotes total factor productivity, especially when high R&D failure rates cannot improve the future level of total factor productivity in firms. The role of total factor productivity, represented by the level of R&D human capital and R&D equipment, in promoting R&D success becomes prominent. Based on this, this study takes industrial firms in 18 cities in Henan Province from 2012 to 2019 as the research sample, with patent operation as the mediating variable and total factor productivity as the moderating variable, to construct a moderated mediation model to test the impact of R&D investment on profit model transformation. The study found: (1) The level of patent operation played a partial mediating role, with the direct effect of R&D investment accounting for a larger proportion. This is due to the high number of dormant patents or firms operating with proprietary technology; thus, emphasizing the role of proprietary technology and high-quality patent operation provides evidence for breaking the black box of R&D investment output. (2) Total factor productivity did not play a moderating role in the first half of the path, indicating that R&D is not just a matter of hard investment; other factors such as institutional, cultural, enthusiasm, and loyalty of R&D personnel, and other soft strengths are more important. Total factor productivity cannot hedge against the high uncertainty from R&D investment to patent output. This conclusion provides a reference for deepening the research on the black box of R&D investment output. (3) Total factor productivity played a moderating role in the latter half of the path, indicating that the uncertainty between high-quality operation and the level of intellectual property income, represented by new product sales revenue and technical service income, is reduced. Under the role of higher total factor productivity, this uncertainty is further reduced. This conclusion provides evidence for breaking the black box of R&D investment output. Therefore, only a virtuous cycle between higher total factor productivity and R&D investment can significantly promote the transformation of profit models. However, it is essential to emphasize high-quality patent cultivation projects and the role of proprietary technology. The results have reference value for the transformation and upgrading of firms and the adjustment of China’s intellectual property strategy.

Keywords: R & D; black box; patent operation; total factor productivity; intellectual property income; profit model transformation

JEL codes: D80, O34, C12

DOI: ...