2023 - Volume 26, Issue 3

Medium and Long Term Convergence in EU

By Lucian Liviu ALBU, Luminița CHIVU and Ada Cristina MARINESCU

Abstract: The dynamics and stages of Romania's economic development until 2050 will be included within at least two scenarios based on the integration of Romanian economy in European Union and on the evolution of internal factors. The development scenarios are focused on the position of Romania within EU, considering both the evolution of the gross domestic product and the evolution of real convergence. The forecast scenarios are based on the increase in the share of the urban population and modernization of economic structures, with a more important contribution in the gross value added or in the gross domestic product from the tertiary sector, from digitalization or from industries based on renewable energy and climate change objectives. We apply a moving target model for the long-term forecast of income per capita based on the decomposition of variables used for calculating GDP per capita expressed in PPP dollars or in euros PPS. For a longer period, in a scenario of deepening integration into the EU and significant structural changes in the economy, Romania could rank 14th in the EU27 in terms of income per inhabitant.

Keywords: economic development, convergence, growth, economic forecast.

JEL codes: O10, Q40, Q47.

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