Emilian DOBRESCU

UPDATED SCENARIOS FOR THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY MEDIUM-TERM DYNAMICS* 

Abstract

The study is based on the 2000 version of the Romanian economy macromodel, amended only by updating the inflation econometric function. The paper presents the estimations for 2001, and, having in view the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme" the author presents two scenarios (a desirable, optimistic one, and a moderate one) for 2002. The estimations of the major macroeconomic indicators are presented in both scenarios for the period 2003-2005.
* (Paper prepared for the ESEN2 Project of the Romanian Academy)

Key words: scenario, macromodel, simulation
JEL Classification: E27, E37, E50