by Constantin, Daniela Luminita;
Goschin, Zizi and Parlog, Cornelia
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2005, volume 6 issue 2,
The present paper examines the main changes in the intensity, orientation and territorial distance of internal migration flows, as well as their structure and the variable influence of the ‘push/pull’ factors involved in this process. Population and labor mobility between regions has been studied using a set of indicators calculated for the 1990-2003 period: gross and net migration, in- and out-migration rates, in- and out-migration flows for the selected zones, their structure and dynamics and so on. Regression functions, interregional migration tables and gravity models have been mainly employed. In order to point out the most important migration flows at the national level, their orientation and distance, four counties (Iasi, Constanta, Timis and Bucharest) have been selected considering their major relevance in terms of geographical position and migration intensity. For these counties, an aggregate gravity model has been proposed in order to analyze the migration flows and forecast them for 2002 and 2006. Finally, the paper discusses the economic policy measures able to reduce the long-distance migration and the intensity of the ‘push’ factors.
Keywords: labor resources, migration flows, migration indicators, gravity model, interregional migration table
JEL Classification: J21, J62, C21