by Radulescu, Magdalena
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2005, volume 6 issue 2,
In the entire transition period, the exchange rate and the exchange market represented considerable problems, that everybody ceaselessly looked after.
In order to study the evolutions in this field and the correlation with other sectors, a very detailed presentation of the aspects related to the structural, legislative and functional changes occurred in the transition period, in all the economic sectors and, especially, in the exchange rate field is necessary.
The issue of the optimal exchange rate policy, that should be elaborated on our way to EU and EMU, is very present and that is what this econometric model tries to reveal: the most important macroeconomic variables in the real exchange rate determination and the way they influence it. Thus, influencing carefully and responsibly these variables, we can achieve the economic stunt according to the real and nominal convergence criteria, so the accession should take place in due time and without further costs for Romania.
That is why we particularly try to stress out the influence of the most important elements of the balance of payments on the real exchange rate (foreign direct investments, imports, exports, exchange debt service, variation in the foreign reserves) and the influence of the potential changes of these elements in the accession run-up, so it could emphasize the state policy priorities for attaining the exchange rate stability and the external balance, because we truly belive that by elaborating suitable economic policies, the Romanian economic problems can be diminished or, they can even be overcome.
Keywords: econometric model, real exchange rate, foreign direct investments, real interest rate differential, external debt service, broad money, inflation differential, export-import ratio, real wage, real GDP, variation of the official gross foreign reserves
JEL Classification: C51