A MODEL TO FORECAST THE MONTHLY INFLATION IN ROMANIA

by Pelinescu, Elena and Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2005, volume 6 issue 3, 37-58

Abstract

This paper is organized in two parts, the presentation of the model of inflation for Romania, and the results of different scenarios starting from the base model. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for the simulation and research of inflation and its determinants in Romania, with a focus on the short-term impact of the changes in money, foreign exchange and wage policies and controlled prices, as well as the impact of the external shocks, such as the international oil price, on the future inflation in Romania.

Keywords: inflation, price, forecasting and simulation, VAR
JEL Classification: E31, E37, C53, P22