Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2004, volume 5 issue 4,
The spectacular evolution of the oil price, which exceeded the historic threshold of 50 dollar/barrel, worried the investors all over the world. The paper analyses the impact of oil price changes on some macroeconomic indicators and on the Gross Domestic Product in Romania using the method of principal components and the regression equations of the GDP, of the oil price level in the analyzed interval. Thus, an increase by 5% in the oil price in a quarter leads to a decrease by 0.05238% in GDP in the same interval. The method had been applied on a set of monthly indicators (for the period 1995-2002), with a structure of 98 percentage compatibility to the ones of partners. The use of the principal components method for the analysis of the impact of oil price change upon Gross Domestic Product revealed which of the components considered for the characterization of its evolution were more or less influenced by the changes in oil price.
GDP, oil price, principal components method
JEL Classification: C1, E31