Emilian DOBRESCU

Macromodel Estimation for the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Programme"*

Abstract

The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Program" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian economy. Obviously, there are numerous questions that should be analyzed from this perspective. The paper is covering three groups of issues. The first chapter attempts to define some reference points, which have to be considered during the updating of the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Program". The contents and the main functional characteristics of the macromodel used in the simulations for this purpose are examined in the second chapter. The third chapter discusses the computational hypothesis and presents the numerical estimations for two scenarios, considered by the author as the most relevant for the period 2002-2005.
(* Study prepared at the request of the Ministry of Development and Forecasting and the National Bank of Romania in order to update the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme")

Key words: economic models, macroeconomics, forecasting, economic growth
JEL Classification: C51, C53, E23, E37