Mariana NICOLAE, Lucian-Liviu ALBU, Dalina Maria ANDREI, Cristian Nicolae STANICA, Marioara IORDAN
MULTI - ANNUAL SCENARIOS USING A SMALL - SIZED RMSM TYPE OF MODEL IN ORDER TO FORECAST THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN ROMANIA

Abstract

Using a small-size RMSM model, the authors simulate development alternatives in the medium run, revealing their implications upon the Romanian economy. The reference scenario is characterized by a moderate economic growth, based on the increase in the investements. Both imports exports are expected to increase, but the trade deficit is also expected to increase. The authors develop two alternatives scenarios and compare the results with the results of Dobrescu model simulated for the same assumptions.

Key words: RMSM models, economic growth, forecasting.
JEL Classification: C51, C53, E23, E37