Kirill MIKHAILENKO
METHODOLOGY OF SCENARIO FORECASTING OF RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The author argues that the Russian economy has unique features that make the application of standard macroeconomic models problematic. He supports the idea of developing new instruments of analysis and forecasting of social and economic development of the Russian economy. The proposed modelling complex is composed of a database and three models. The first model is elaborated for short term forecasting of basic macroeconomic indicators. The second model is a quarterly scenario forecasting of Russian economy in the medium run. The third model realizes forecasts of annual balances in the framework of the System of National Accounts. The forecasting exercises of the complex modelling are realised under two alternative scenario, an optimistic scenario and a pessimistic scenario.

Key words: macroeconomic modelling, forecasting, economic growth.
JEL Classification: C53, E23, E25, O4.