by Klein, Lawrence R.; Roudoi, Andrei; Eskin, Vladimir; Albu, Lucian Liviu; Stanica, Cristian; Nicolae, Mariana; Chilian, Mihaela Nona
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2004, volume 5 supplement,


The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP used was computed using the production decomposition method in accordance with the national accounts, and the data were generated by applying the principal components analysis and econometric techniques on monthly data. The results of the model were compared with the data published by the Romanian National Institute of Statistics, and, generally, the differences between the actual and the estimated data were a consequence of the fact that in the Romanian economy there were few representative monthly series that had a direct influence on the quarterly national accounts indicators.
(* This paper was prepared for the international workshop within the program Improvement of Economic Policy through Think Tank Partnership”, held in Bucharest, Romania, on October 27-29, 2003, and is part of a grant by the U.S. Agency for International Development for the project “Mechanisms of Long-term Growth in the Economies in Transition (Cases of Russia and Romania)”. The research partners of this project were Global Insight (former DRI-WEFA – USA), the Institute of Economic Forecasting (Romania) and the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Economic Forecasting (Russian Federation). This publication was made possible through support provided by the Moscow Office of the U.S. Agency for International Development, under the terms of Contract No. PCE-I-00-00-00014-00. The options, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development).

Keywords: principal components analysis, macroeconomic forecasting, gross domestic product, oil price shocks, Brent oil price
JEL Classification: C32, C53, E27