by Klein, Lawrence R.; Roudoi, Andrei;
Eskin, Vladimir; Nicolae, Mariana
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2004, volume 5
supplement,
The paper attempts to study the influences of the quarterly changes in the international oil price upon certain macroeconomic indicators and upon the GDP, using the principal components analysis. It also analyzes the indirect impact of a change in oil prices – through all the other indicators – and also the direct one – through channels not reflected by the selected indicators and assuming they stay unchanged. The method revealed which of the considered components were more or less influenced by the changes in the oil price, and allowed for the quantification of the impact of the possible oil price shocks upon each of the considered variables, and, implicitly, upon the GDP, in the same interval within such a shock has occurred.
(* This paper was prepared for the international workshop within the program Improvement of Economic Policy through Think Tank Partnership”, held in Bucharest, Romania, on October 27-29, 2003, and is part of a grant by the U.S. Agency for International Development for the project “Mechanisms of Long-term Growth in the Economies in Transition (Cases of Russia and Romania)”. The research partners of this project were Global Insight (former DRI-WEFA – USA), the Institute of Economic Forecasting (Romania) and the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Economic Forecasting (Russian Federation). This publication was made possible through support provided by the Moscow Office of the U.S. Agency for International Development, under the terms of Contract No. PCE-I-00-00-00014-00. The options, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development).
Keywords: principal components analysis, macroeconomic forecasting, gross domestic product, oil price shocks, Brent oil price
JEL Classification: C32, C53, E27