by Institute for Economic Forecasting
and Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2011, volume 14 issue 1, 277-281
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The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for
internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the
utilization of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or
operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant is the structural
decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the
relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioral
functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships.
Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately naming this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present the Spring forecast for 2011.
model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations