Second order effects in population migration

by Purica, Ionut
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
, 2008, volume 9 issue 2, 121-128

 Requires a PDF viewer such as Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader


Migration becomes a more and more significant process that triggers various types of complex behavior. After analyzing the process, especially with regard to the occurrence of nonlinear behavior, a model is build to include the features that may lead to the occurrence of cycles of migration reverse. The results of a simulation are showing patterns of behavior similar to the Italian case of large ex-migrations in the fifties that were reversed in mid seventies. A set of potential applications on migration from newly entrant countries in the EU to EU-15 is possible especially related to actions that may speed up the moment of migration cycle reverse.

Keywords: nonlinear, migration, cycles, complexity
JEL Classification: C5, D4