The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version Yearly Forecast Summer Forecast 2009

Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2009, volume 10 issue 2, 200-203

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Abstract

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for domestic policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and informational improvements. The most significant is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transition processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships.
Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning with 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we consider it is appropriate to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present three scenarios
for 2009.

Keywords: model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations.
JEL Classification: C5, E2, E6, H6