by Dobrescu, Emilian
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2010, volume 13 issue 2, 7-28
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The paper revises the previous authorís estimates of the medium-term evolution of the
Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters.
The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view. The second chapter presents three simulated scenarios for the period 2010-2014. One of them (named the Base Scenario BSc) is conceived with macroeconomic parameters close to those envisaged by Government, in correlation with the IMF stand-by Agreement. The other two (the Worsened Scenarios W1Sc and W2Sc) admit less favorable domestic and external business environment.
In the final chapter, the results of simulations are compared to each other and also to the officially accepted forecasting documents. Some former similar predictions (anticipating more optimistic indicators) are discussed from the modeling perspective.
macromodel, input-output analysis, simulation, scenario, crisis