Estimating Coal Price Dynamics with the Principal Components Method

by Festic, Mejra & Repina, Sebastijan & Volcjak, Robert
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
, 2010, volume 13 issue 2, 188-212

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The future use of coal depends on environmental protection measures and the Kyoto Protocol, the price of CO2 emission coupons, consumption, new technologies, the price of other energy sources and the liberalization of the electricity markets. The prices of emission coupons will impact the costs of electricity energy production.
Due to the relatively higher reference costs of alternative energy sources, we can not expect that the share of coal as an energy source will lower significantly as a source of electricity production in the future. From the point of view of regional economic aspects and the reference costs of electricity production, we could state that using coal in the near future is also tied to the socio-economic aspects of mining domestic coal. Using it in thermo plants is also enabled by the conditions of priority dispatching (since 2000) in the EU economies.
We assessed the influence of prices and the use of ot her energy sources, environmental measures, energy efficiency and the influence of electricity market liberalisation on coal price movements. Our estimation shows that, if the prices of other energy sources and electricity increase, the price of coal increases. If the use of other energy sources increases, and if the gross uses of industrial waste and renewable resources increase, the price of coal decreases. Environmental protection measures contribute to an increase in coal prices. A higher quotient of energy efficiency decelerates
the price of coal. And the euro (to dollar) appreciation decelerates coal prices.

Keywords: coal prices, environmental protection measures, priority dispatching
JEL Classification:
C22, C40, C50, Q31, Q40