by Institute for Economic Forecasting
& Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2010, volume 13 issue 2, 320-324
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The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for
internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the
Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the
utilization of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or
operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some
methodological and informational improvements. The most significant of them is the
structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques.
Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004.
Therefore, we have considered more adequately naming this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present the Summer forecast for 2010 (May estimations).
model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations