Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE

by Caraiani, Petre
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
, 2009, volume 11 issue 3, 75-84

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In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for Romania. In the long run, the model forecasts a stable annual growth rate of about 4.9%.

Keywords: forecasting methods, DSGE models, Bayesian methods, real business cycles
JEL Classification: E60, C68