Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Romanian Price Indices. Avar Approach.

by Cozmanca, Bogdan-Octavian  & Manea, Florentina 
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting
, 2010, volume 13 issue 3, 26-52

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This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices, producer prices and several different measures of consumer price indices for the Romanian economy. In order to determine the size and describe the dynamics in ERPT, the paper employs an array of econometric methods belonging to the VAR family. The methods employed are RVARs (on different price indices and/or on a rolling window) and Sign-restriction VARs (also using different consumer inflation measures). The results point to an almost complete pass-through into import prices and incomplete pass-through into producer and consumer prices. In all cases except import prices the ERPT displays a decline in magnitude over the analysed time interval.

Keywords: exchange rate, pass-through, import prices, producer prices, consumer prices, vector autoregression, sign-restriction
JEL Classification:
C32, E31, E52, F31, O52