The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version-Yearly Forecast
Autumn Forecast
by
Pauna, Bianca,
Ghizdeanu, Ion, Scutaru, Cornelia, Fomin, Petre and Corina Saman
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2008, volume 9 issue 4,
206-209
Abstract
In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4].
The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context.
This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2004). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements.
The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques.
Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.
Keywords:
model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations.
JEL Classification:
C5, E2, E6, H6
