The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version-Yearly Forecast - Preliminate for 2009

Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2008, volume 12 issue 4, 224-226

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The macromodel estimates the  short and medium-term economic  implications for internal policies and changes in the  international context. This version of  the Romanian macromodel incorporates the  experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms -  either experimental (tested during 1991- 1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003).  At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information  improvements. The most significant of  them is the structural decomposition of the economy,  associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of  the transitional processes in Romania,  the behavioural functions were accommodated -  as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that  used the statistical series beginning in  1980, the present one is based exclusively on  information concerning the period 1989- 2004. Therefore, we have considered more  adequately to name this variant the  macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition,  as before) economy. In this article we  present only the economic preliminate for 2009 of  the variable of interest. For a  description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4].

Keywords: model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations. JEL Classification: E2, E3, E4, E5, E6,  H6