Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a Small DSGE Model

by Caraiani, Petre
Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2008, volume 9 issue 1,

Requires a PDF viewer such as Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader


In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly 
Romanian GDP.
The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval of the forecast when the shock uncertainty is also included. The projection for the 2007-2010 period indicates an average growth rate of almost 6%.

Keywords: forecasting methods, DSGE models, Bayesian methods, real business cycles.
JEL Classification: E60, C68